Has the quality improved in the past 15 years?

samedi 17 octobre 2015

I watched the 2006 World Cup semifinal between Germany and Italy the other day -- and was impressed. Cannavaro's performance was in the all-time greats category, yes, but even mediocre players like Gilardino looked very solid (with an OT chance that hit the post and rolled agonizingly along the goal line and later a cheeky assist on the last second of the match). Then there were Lehmann and Buffon, both with a couple of incredible saves, and Ballack, Totti, Zambrotta, Lahm, Klose, del Piero etc. Mertesacker looked very solid in the back. Basically it was the level of football that you would expect from a World Cup semi... today.

Which brings me to my point. Long-term comparisons between teams and players are rife with biases and extreme generalizations, e.g. Pele would score 100+ goals in a single La Liga season nowadays or, conversely, Pele would be left out of my high school team. The latter are more common.

It is hard to compare. There are no overlaps between the players, no reference points. Even something like the quality of the image (HD v 144p) might affect our perception of the quality of the game. On the other hand, we often think of football in linear terms... In swimming and athletics, the quality of performance improves every month or year or at least couple of years. It is measured and thus the progress cannot be refuted. In football, we cannot measure it but it is tempting to make the same assumption.

But if that's the case, if modern footballers are obviously better than those who played 30-40 years ago, they should also be better than those who played 10-15 years ago. Are they?
Has the quality improved in the past 15 years?

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