With the International Break upon us, it is time to reflect on the horrible start of the season and look at possibilities of a possible comeback (rimonta) that will propel us to the top positions in the standings.
Below is a translation of an article written on calcioefinanzia.it website about this topic....
Conte's Juve needed for the comeback
To hope to win back the championship, Juventus must be able to win at least 22 of the next 27 games (or collect 66 points). Arriving at at least 81 points would be essential for challenging for the title. An average points worthy of Conte's last Juve (who won 24 of 27).
Obviously the odds increase exponentially if those wins start coming right away, in the 6 matchdays leading up to Christmas. At that point scenarios could change, but there remains a major obstacle: the title contenders at the moment are four, not only one.
The last 4 Serie A campaigns were used to analyze how many points are required by Juve to reach the different goals: Scudetto, CL qualification and EL qualification.
The summit at this time is at 24 points . Only in 2011-2012 it was lower : Milan had 23 points, with Juventus (21 points) winning in the end with 84 points.
During the last four years, the first in the standings has averaged 90 points, 78.25 the second, the third 70.25 , 65.25 fourth , fifth 62.5 and sixth (often fished in Europe thanks to the Italian Cup) 59.25.
It means that with 60 points we can hope to get into the Europa League , between 66 and 70 in the playoffs of the Champions League with the third place , from 80 on, we challenge for the title.
Between 80 and 90 points (which is the average points of the first ) is needed because as Max Allegri remarked last year : " The team that wins the league need to be one point ahead of the second , not the one who wins all the games." In other words, even in the year of Juventus record ( 102 points 2013/2014 ) 86 points would be enough (one more than the second placed Roma with 85 ) instead of 102 to win the title .
Widening , for a moment , the analysis : the Scudetto won with lowest share of points since (2004/2005) played with 20 teams was 82 points in 2009/2010, in which the title went to Inter (28 points after 11 games), and in the 2010/2011 title at Milan (23 points after 11 games).
Top spot with 24 points... and then what?
The first fact: in general the average points of the first in the standings after 11 matchdays tended to decrease over the remaining 38 matchdays. Over the last four years it has fallen by an average of 4.8 % . It happened 3 times out of 4.
The only time it went up it was in 2011-2012 season (the year most similar to the current level of the peak in the top positions and stacking ) when Milan after 11 matchdays led with 23 points. Juve then won the title with 84 points ( + 5.42% ) .
Three possible scenarios
If the top teams maintain their current average points (2.18 per game) you can expect a closing with 83 points.
If the averages respect the trend of the last four seasons, you might even win the championship with 80 points.
If you will follow the trend of 2011/2012 ( similar to the current year with the highest and lowest of the last four years with the largest cluster in the first place ) will need 88 points to win .
How much should Juve win?
We are not the fiction of " must win them all " but close enough. Certainly serve immediately at least 5 wins from 6 up to Christmas .
The problem that remains is that the race is against four opponents and a 'mass suicide' is highly unlikely .
The hopes of the white fans are hung ( past two months) to a sentence : you have to win a number of games in a row .
Right. But how many ? And once won these matches , how many more we must win to keep hoping ?
Concretely winning many games in a row only has an effect to make it more likely , sooner or later , a defeat. That is why there are records for consecutive wins that are rarely broken.
If , as we said , the points haul needed will probably be slightly higher than 80 points, then Juve will need at least another 66 points to add to the existing 15. That is 22 wins out of the remaining 27 matches!
And what are the chances of getting the victories needed ?
You can judge looking at the recent past (the recent leaves very few illusions ) . Last year in the same period of time Juve won 17 games (the 11th had already racked up 9 wins) . Juve records of Antonio Conte , however , he won as many as 24 of 27 from the twelfth to the last day . Previously always with Conte they arrived 18 wins in 2012/2013 , just as in 2011/2012.
No other team - except precisely Juve's Conte - have never won more than 17 games of the last 27 in these four years : he stopped just 17 games Max Allegri 's AC Milan in the 2011/2012 year of the famous head to head with Juventus unbeaten , and the same Milan fared no better the following year ( 16 wins ) when getting back from tenth to third place ( robbing the Champions league final place from Fiorentina in the last day).
The first Roma Garcia (2013/2014) stopped 16 of 27 after the resounding start ( only 12 last year ) while the first Naples Benitez made 14 of 27.
The current record for consecutive wins in Serie A belongs to Inter's Mancini ( 17 in 2006/2007 ) while Juve of 102 points ( 2013/2014 ) racked up 12 in a row . Spalletti 's Roma made it 11 in 2005/2006 . A 10 -game winning streak came instead 4 different teams in the history of the league : the last one was the Rome of Garcia in 2013-2014 .
To calculate the odds Champions League (as a third ) that's easily done: you have to subtract a dozen points to those who are used to the summit ( then serve at least 16-18 wins, or the average trend - extraordinary - the last seasons ) , and another 10 points less ( so at least 15 wins over a good number of draws) in order to achieve the goal of consolation of the Europa League .
In light of these numbers, we can say that Juve can get back to winning the championship only on two conditions :
1 -Make a historical match winning run never seen before in Serie A
2. if in the meantime there will be a mass suicide of the top four that will lower significantly the point haul required to conquer the summit
The rankings of the last championships in fact say at least two teams from those that after 11 days have the performance of Inter, Roma , Napoli and Fiorentina can reach ( and very often exceed ) 80 points .
In the end, these are just scenarios. To each their own judgment on the likelihood of success.
Operation Comeback
Below is a translation of an article written on calcioefinanzia.it website about this topic....
Conte's Juve needed for the comeback
To hope to win back the championship, Juventus must be able to win at least 22 of the next 27 games (or collect 66 points). Arriving at at least 81 points would be essential for challenging for the title. An average points worthy of Conte's last Juve (who won 24 of 27).
Obviously the odds increase exponentially if those wins start coming right away, in the 6 matchdays leading up to Christmas. At that point scenarios could change, but there remains a major obstacle: the title contenders at the moment are four, not only one.
The last 4 Serie A campaigns were used to analyze how many points are required by Juve to reach the different goals: Scudetto, CL qualification and EL qualification.
The summit at this time is at 24 points . Only in 2011-2012 it was lower : Milan had 23 points, with Juventus (21 points) winning in the end with 84 points.
During the last four years, the first in the standings has averaged 90 points, 78.25 the second, the third 70.25 , 65.25 fourth , fifth 62.5 and sixth (often fished in Europe thanks to the Italian Cup) 59.25.
It means that with 60 points we can hope to get into the Europa League , between 66 and 70 in the playoffs of the Champions League with the third place , from 80 on, we challenge for the title.
Between 80 and 90 points (which is the average points of the first ) is needed because as Max Allegri remarked last year : " The team that wins the league need to be one point ahead of the second , not the one who wins all the games." In other words, even in the year of Juventus record ( 102 points 2013/2014 ) 86 points would be enough (one more than the second placed Roma with 85 ) instead of 102 to win the title .
Widening , for a moment , the analysis : the Scudetto won with lowest share of points since (2004/2005) played with 20 teams was 82 points in 2009/2010, in which the title went to Inter (28 points after 11 games), and in the 2010/2011 title at Milan (23 points after 11 games).
Top spot with 24 points... and then what?
The first fact: in general the average points of the first in the standings after 11 matchdays tended to decrease over the remaining 38 matchdays. Over the last four years it has fallen by an average of 4.8 % . It happened 3 times out of 4.
The only time it went up it was in 2011-2012 season (the year most similar to the current level of the peak in the top positions and stacking ) when Milan after 11 matchdays led with 23 points. Juve then won the title with 84 points ( + 5.42% ) .
Three possible scenarios
If the top teams maintain their current average points (2.18 per game) you can expect a closing with 83 points.
If the averages respect the trend of the last four seasons, you might even win the championship with 80 points.
If you will follow the trend of 2011/2012 ( similar to the current year with the highest and lowest of the last four years with the largest cluster in the first place ) will need 88 points to win .
How much should Juve win?
We are not the fiction of " must win them all " but close enough. Certainly serve immediately at least 5 wins from 6 up to Christmas .
The problem that remains is that the race is against four opponents and a 'mass suicide' is highly unlikely .
The hopes of the white fans are hung ( past two months) to a sentence : you have to win a number of games in a row .
Right. But how many ? And once won these matches , how many more we must win to keep hoping ?
Concretely winning many games in a row only has an effect to make it more likely , sooner or later , a defeat. That is why there are records for consecutive wins that are rarely broken.
If , as we said , the points haul needed will probably be slightly higher than 80 points, then Juve will need at least another 66 points to add to the existing 15. That is 22 wins out of the remaining 27 matches!
And what are the chances of getting the victories needed ?
You can judge looking at the recent past (the recent leaves very few illusions ) . Last year in the same period of time Juve won 17 games (the 11th had already racked up 9 wins) . Juve records of Antonio Conte , however , he won as many as 24 of 27 from the twelfth to the last day . Previously always with Conte they arrived 18 wins in 2012/2013 , just as in 2011/2012.
No other team - except precisely Juve's Conte - have never won more than 17 games of the last 27 in these four years : he stopped just 17 games Max Allegri 's AC Milan in the 2011/2012 year of the famous head to head with Juventus unbeaten , and the same Milan fared no better the following year ( 16 wins ) when getting back from tenth to third place ( robbing the Champions league final place from Fiorentina in the last day).
The first Roma Garcia (2013/2014) stopped 16 of 27 after the resounding start ( only 12 last year ) while the first Naples Benitez made 14 of 27.
The current record for consecutive wins in Serie A belongs to Inter's Mancini ( 17 in 2006/2007 ) while Juve of 102 points ( 2013/2014 ) racked up 12 in a row . Spalletti 's Roma made it 11 in 2005/2006 . A 10 -game winning streak came instead 4 different teams in the history of the league : the last one was the Rome of Garcia in 2013-2014 .
To calculate the odds Champions League (as a third ) that's easily done: you have to subtract a dozen points to those who are used to the summit ( then serve at least 16-18 wins, or the average trend - extraordinary - the last seasons ) , and another 10 points less ( so at least 15 wins over a good number of draws) in order to achieve the goal of consolation of the Europa League .
In light of these numbers, we can say that Juve can get back to winning the championship only on two conditions :
1 -Make a historical match winning run never seen before in Serie A
2. if in the meantime there will be a mass suicide of the top four that will lower significantly the point haul required to conquer the summit
The rankings of the last championships in fact say at least two teams from those that after 11 days have the performance of Inter, Roma , Napoli and Fiorentina can reach ( and very often exceed ) 80 points .
In the end, these are just scenarios. To each their own judgment on the likelihood of success.
